Comparison of Rainfall Forecasting in Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Weighted Moving Average (WMA) Methods (Case Study at Village of Gampong Blang Bintang, Big Aceh District-Sumatera-Indonesia
Keywords:rainfall, forecasting, simple moving average, weighted moving average
The changing climate causes rainfall to vary from period to period. This change has an impact on society, especially in agriculture such as crop failure. This study aims to predict rainfall in 2018 and 2019 with the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method and the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method. Based on 2004-2018 data, the dry season occurs in February-October and the rainy season in November-January. The level of validation of forecasters in 2018 according to each the SMA method and the WMA method were 43.43% and 40.69%, respectively. Both of these methods are low and reasonable or acceptable. Based on the SMA method, the division of the dry season in 2019 is estimated in February-October while the distribution of the rainy season in the same year is in December-January. Based on the WMA Method that the distribution of the dry season is estimated in February-April, June-September and the rainy season in October-January and May.
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